Alex Muir

Short version: Facebook will show you a list of people who have your number in their phone.

Try it: [Update: This doesn’t seem to be happening for everybody. It seems a fake sounding name like Blah blah may be the key to triggering the security check.] Create a new Facebook account using an unused email address.  Facebook will insist you add a mobile number as a security check.  It will then show you a list of ‘people you might know’ - this list is people who have you in their phonebook.

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Ironically, I was deleting my Facebook account over privacy concerns when I discovered this breach. I decided to deactivate my account, but I have a few Facebook apps that I need to maintain - so I created a new blank account ready to take over these apps.

I used a different email address obviously, and once I’d created the account, Facebook demanded to confirm my account (for security reasons) by sending an SMS to my mobile. Fine - I put in my number, received the code and entered it.

Here’s what came up next:

This list contains eight names.  Some I instantly recognised, and others I had to do some research to identify.  At first I was baffled - I guessed maybe Facebook had copied something across from my previous account via a cookie or similar.  But it turns out that FB used my mobile number (which they took as a security check) to match up with people who have me in their mobile phone book and have synced the Facebook app.

I fully understand why they’re doing this - it connects new users into existing networks, it’s an evolution of the ‘import your Hotmail contacts’ facility.  I just didn’t like the approach at all.  They demanded my mobile number under the pretence of a security check, but then used to it find people who have me in their mobile phone contacts.

A little deeper thought: These little privacy leaks are not important on their own. A little data leaks here, a little there.  What is concerning is that we can guarantee private investigators and professional identity fraudsters are well on top of all these little loopholes. And combined, I’d say Facebook is probably pissing data out.  Some wet-dream potential for law enforcement here - slap in a request to Facebook on a drug-dealing suspect, find a list of everyone with his number in their phone. Repeat until prisons full.

The cost of Amazon manufacturing the new Kindle Fire is estimated at $209.  It’s selling for $199.  A $10 loss, which Amazon will recoup off about three eBooks over the lifetime of a device sold today.  My immediate thought was ‘Why isn’t everyone (being doing this?’, and then I read of fears of a pricing war at the lower end of the tablet market.  But that’s not going to happen, and here’s why.

Samsung and HP aren’t retailers.  People don’t (almost without exception) buy direct from them.  You don’t visit Samsung.com and order a Tab.  You buy them at other retailers like BestBuy and (lol) Amazon.  So Samsung have to add another hefty cost on top of their manufacturing cost - the retailer’s margin.   Bestbuy don’t want to be stocking shelves full of Galaxy Tabs, littered with merchandising, for the lure of 3%.  They probably didn’t much fancy the HP Touchpad either, and look how that turned out. (They’ll stock Apple goodies for wafer-thin margins though, because it brings in affluent customers and looks good in the store.)

Amazon are going to be playing on their own at the $200 price-point - not only are they the only player who can subsidise devices with future content sales, but they can distribute them for virtually nothing.  $1 to UPS and your Kindle is on its way.

But there’s a big multicoloured elephant in the room waving it’s trunk around.  Yes, it’s Google.  And they’ve got neither manufacturing, nor retailing, nor future content sales.  But they’re big and rich and a bit mental.

Well, I already know the answer - It’s a low-margin, highly competitive business where profits are driven almost entirely by upselling. But fuck it, these companies are like the Ryanair of internet infrastructure.  And today I’ve found a new low.

I use 123-reg for my UK domains - they’re about the cheapest and I know my way around their control panel.  Over the eight years that I’ve been with them, they’ve massively geared up their upselling but I’ve been able to handle it.  There was always the whois privacy add-on, the ‘site building’ software, the search engine submissions and the other assorted bollocks that they try to throw into my shopping basket.

Then they started automatically ticking various other TLDs whenever you try to register one.  Look at this example - I want to register a .co.uk for £5.98 but wait a minute, they’ve ticked an extra £77 of domains that I didn’t want.  I’ve got to untick them to roll on.  Ok, annoying but I can live with it.

Hammering a big fucking nail into the coffin

A couple of weeks ago I noticed the sly bastards autorenewed some domains off a credit card they had sneakily stored.  I thought I must have ticked something by mistake.  I removed the credit card and let the renewal slide.  But today I registered a new domain and saw that they’ve saved my payment details yet again WITHOUT ASKING.  So off I go to remove them and… FUCK ME, what’s this?

To stop them from autobilling me, I’ve got to phone them - and pay 10p a minute for the privilege.  Fuck you 123 reg.

There's a better way.

I use NearlyFreeSpeech for registering .com etc domains.  There’s no scamming, no upsell, no bullshit.  I highly recommend them.  Unfortunately they don’t do .uk domains.

This is just a quick update (and mainly a reminder for myself) on where I’m at with shares.

I’ve not made any changes over the last few months but today I had a quick refresh:

Google - Up 9%

Has just released outstanding earnings for the first quarter.  That saw a 13% after-hours gain on a $192bn market cap - that in itself is exceptional.  Around $20bn in wealth generated in an hour.  My thoughts on Google remain the same - their advertising actually works, both for advertisers and consumers.  It’s a more transactional environment than Facebook and for advertisers looking to sell something off a click Google is the best choice.

Google’s results have been getting worse recently but there’s no competitor (on search) in sight and they seem to be getting on top of things with their new Panda algorithm.  Google Plus is getting a lot of hype, but then so did Wave and that’s bombed.  I haven’t managed to get into Plus at all (nor did I ‘get’ Wave).  I have a feeling that Plus might do well against Tumblr, Twitter, Posterous et al.

Apple - Up 19%

Apple are absolutely flying.  The iPhone is the best phone, the iPad is the best (and arguably only viable) tablet, and the Macbook Pro and Air range of laptops are the best laptops on the market.  In a world where people spend a huge proportion of their time using smartphones/computers, and where increasing numbers of people are using them as their primary tool to earn money, spending £1,200 on a laptop is justifiable and actually makes sense.  People are happy to spend £1,000 on a TV, but spend 5x more time interacting with their phone - which at £500 is a bargain.

I’ve recently explored the Android handset market and it’s a crock of shit. Just like competing tablets, comparable Android handsets seem to be around the same price as the iPhone. My prediction is that Apple are going to start shipping serious numbers of Macbooks and begin to dominate the top-end laptop market, just as they have done with mobiles and iPads.  The Apple TV hasn’t hit the right spot yet.  I still can’t bear the Mac operating system.

Begbies Traynor - Down 33%

This has been a real shitter.  I bought into Begbies at an average of around 60p, watched it rise to 80p and then fall down to 40p.  I took a 33% loss on selling, and it’s been a real dog.  I was initially betting on a rise in insolvency work but this never materialised, largely due to low interest rates and a passive approach to debt recovery from banks.  I’m not sure what the end-game is in this situation as there are plenty of unviable businesses continuing to trade who must ultimately be closed down.  Later, when the price dipped to its lows, I was hoping for the founder, Ric Traynor, to step in and take the company private again.  I should have taken my loss on this earlier.

Kingfisher - New purchase

I took my Begbies proceeds and rolled them into Kingfisher, which I think is a solid bet.  Kingfisher owns B&Q and Screwfix.  Both have really strong prospects and I see strong management with innovation.

B&Q has seen Focus DIY go out of business, and Wickes can’t be far behind.  That will leave B&Q  and Homebase as the only DIY retailers standing.  And unlike HMV, who are the last-man-standing in their industry, DIY is not a dead market.  I’ve seen some great stuff from B&Q recently (and god knows I’ve spent enough time and money in there).  When Focus went under they put up cheeky little signs in the stores  - “B&Q welcomes out new Focus DIY customers”.  Brilliant.  They’ve got a 10% off card for oldies on a Wednesday and the store is packed out.  They’ve launched Tradepoint to get the tradesmen into the store - going up directly against Jewson and builders’ merchants (and also cannibalising some of their own Screwfix market).  The staff often actually know what they’re talking about - at least 60% are retired folks, often tradespeople.

A couple of things B&Q have nailed - they’ve got hourly van rentals in the car park, in partnership with Hertz.  They have also built little classrooms in stores and run training sessions for the public on tiling, laying laminate flooring etc.  I LOVE this idea.

Screwfix is Argos for makers.  It’s brilliant - cheap chinese made kit, alongside pro-quality tools.  Compare Screwfix with any of the trade-type suppliers (Plumb/Build Centre, Jewsons, CityElectrical/Plumbing etc.) - these useless bastards don’t even have their prices/catalogs online.  And they are more expensive.  And you get treated like a dick in there.  I fucking can’t stand the places.  Screwfix just does what I need, and I know they’re making a killing doing it.  It’s going after a huge market and I think it’s going to win.

I’m sitting on a bit of BP still but no movement there.  It’s just a hedge against being too tech-focused really.

BP - taken an almighty beating.  I'm staggered by the lack of leadership, direction, PR awareness, and competence at BP.  The fundamentals remain solid - but I have no confidence that the company can manage either the current disaster or its future assets.  There is still minimal clarity over the scale of this disaster, but it looks likely to be the worst oil leak ever.  More oil continues flowing into the ocean - BP have managed to capture 24,000 barrels on their best day, but the consensus is that 35,000 to 60,000 barrels are leaking each day.  

The most critical factor is going to be how far BP can claim against its suppliers for their mistakes.  I think there’s a real risk that BP moves into a pseudo-insolvency position, or is essentially taken into public ownership temporarily.  This has already happened in a way, through the establishment of the $20bn fund the US government has essentially said “We’ll take all your profit until you’ve solved this problem”.  ie. We own you until you’ve paid up.  I’m jumping ship on the next rise because I think there’s a real risk that BP becomes a trust fund for the next five years or longer.

Google - down a little but it’s a long-term bet, I’m not worried at all.  One change of note - 160,000 Android handsets are now being sold every day.  

Begbies Traynor - I’ve bought into Begbies at 58.75.  It’s hovering around this floor level but I am feeling relatively confident that insolvencies should rise over the next year.  Vantis, a competitor, looks likely to fold in the next month or so.

Netflix - Bought in. Netflix have led the pack on digital film delivery.  I like their management, I like the business.  I also think they’re a serious acquisition target for a number of companies, including Amazon, potentially Google, or even a group of studios themselves. There is a risk that Hulu moves into their business, but I don’t see any reason why this is a winner-takes-all market.  

On the bright side my losses over the last couple of weeks on stocks are offset by profits from betting on the World Cup using various free bets, cashback etc.