Alex Muir

I’m going to put a few brief notes down about the (admittedly tiny) trades that I make.  Mainly for my own benefit as I look back to see why I did certain things.

Google

I’m betting on Google for three key things: 1. As a strong player (and a hedge against Apple) in the mobile web and smartphones.  I have a feeling that Android will become the mainstream phone OS, replacing Symbian.  Google will benefit mostly from the tight integration with its own products, and control over advertising on this operating system.   2. Enterprise products.  Everybody swears by GMail at home, but at work they’re stuck using Outlook, Lotus Notes, or some godawful webmail interface.  Google Calendar, Maps, Reader, Apps etc are all strong - I use them all but I suspect most people don’t.  Enterprise customers are going to start moving across to Google’s services.  The University of St Andrews has moved across to GMail, this can only have a positive effect on enterprise uptake.

3. Online advertising.  Google’s core revenue remains search advertising and Adsense.  I’m a sceptic on advertising, but I think that Google’s services are measurable, accessible and affordable.  They also actually deliver some results - advertising spend is going to continue moving online.  Example: BP buying up “oil slick” keywords on Google to combat negative PR over the Mexico disaster.  Which leads us to…

BP

Any massive fines against BP will turn into a diplomatic issue quickly - the UK can’t afford to see large amounts of its pension funds wiped out.  Ultimately, I’m betting that the economy wins out against the environment.

I expect to see heads roll on the BP board, a hefty fine, and regulatory changes over oil drilling in the US.

Penalties against BP will raise the price of oil (directly, and through increasing the overall costs of extraction to avoid future penalties).  There is also (so I am told) the prospect of BP being acquired, though I don’t see this as particularly likely.

Watching

Apple

I’m waiting to buy into Apple.  The iPod is now the only MP3 player worth mentioning (nine years after launch). The iPhone remains far and away the best phone available (three years on).  I think the iPad is awesome but, at least in its current form, it’s not going to replace a phone or a desktop computer for most people. Apple now control the hardware, the operating system, the markets for audio, apps, video, books (from which they make c. 30%).  

I’m waiting to buy because historically Apple shares have dipped in the month following their product launch (iPhone 4G just announced).

RIM / Nokia

Microsoft are taking a beating on all fronts when it comes to mobile. Their mobile operating system is going nowhere, and is seeing little support from manufacturers.

If Microsoft wants to stay up with the move to mobile they are going to have to do something - Google (through Android) and Apple are going to force them out.  I am wondering whether Microsoft will buy RIM or Nokia to stay in the game, but at the moment I think it unlikely.  

HTC

I’d look at buying HTC but they’re traded on the Taiwan market and it seems fairly hard to buy into.

Begbies Traynor

Begbies have shown a steady decline for two years despite the slowdown of the economy.  Now trading at c. 60p.  Begbies’ focus is on SME windups in the regions - they claim the HMRC have deferred a huge number of these insolvencies through their Time-to-Pay scheme and by not pursuing winding up orders. This backlog of insolvencies has to come through some time, so perhaps now might be the time to buy in.  My hesitation is that Begbies structure is different to most insolvency practices - Insolvency Practitioners are largely employees rather than owners, so perhaps there isn’t the hunger that is found in other firms.

It pains the creative industries that computer users generally won't pay anything for a four-minute song, but will happily pay £1.50 or more for a ringtone version of it. PC users won't pay to send and receive thousands of emails a year, but will pay 10p to send one SMS text. The iPad is clearly on the "will pay" side of the great divide, which makes its users much more attractive than any number of netbook buyers on the "won't pay" side. [The Guardian](http://www.guardian.co.uk/technology/2010/may/16/buy-or-nor-to-buy-ipad)

I enjoyed watching the choreography of David Cameron welcoming Nick Clegg to 10 Downing Street for the first time today.

1. Cameron is hiding inside the door rather than on the step so he isn’t seen as waiting. But he opens the door instantly so that Clegg isn’t seen waiting either.
2. Cameron stands left-side facing the cameras.  This means his hand is visible to the camera, and creates the perception that his hand is on top, and therefore dominant. This is always the power position in any photo opportunity.
3. Clegg counters with a left arm to Cameron’s elbow.
4. Cameron instantly counter-counters with a left arm to Clegg’s elbow.
5. Clegg’s arm is a little late up, leaving the impression that this was an impromptu wave from Cameron that wasn’t in the script.
6. Cameron pats Clegg on the back to guide him into No. 10.
7. But Clegg counters with a slow step and then places his hand on Cameron’s back to guide him into his own home.
8. Cameron breaks and goes for the final hand-on-the-back guide before the door closes.

It’s interesting to compare the front facing camera work in the video above, with the side-on camera in this next video:

I’m fascinated by the reaction to today’s announcement of the iPad’s UK prices.  It’s a very visible sign of Britain’s economic decline.

I’m no Apple fan (in fact I own nothing Apple), but the iPad grabbed me and I’ve been waiting since February’s announcement to pick one up (I want a UK guarantee and insurance as I’ll definitely drop it repeatedly).  But the reality of the pricing has hit me hard - and it doesn’t seem that I’m alone.

First, let’s get the maths out of the way.  The 16GB 3G model is $629 (excluding US sales tax).  Converted to GBP at today’s Visa rate (1 USD = 0.680051 GBP) that’s £427.  Add on the UK VAT and we’re at £502.  The actual price is £529 so there’s a bit of a premium but it’s hardly decisive.  So what’s happened?

At launch in the US, people were surprised at how cheap the iPad was (me included).  Apple have sold 1 million in the US; exceeding their estimates so much that they were forced to delay international launch.  Now the price is out for the UK and we’re all grumbling that it’s too expensive.  But these are what the prices were always going to be.  One only needed to grab a calculator and work it out.  I didn’t do that, I just assumed that if the US thought it was cheap so would I when a UK price came out.  But I don’t, and I don’t think I’m buying one (Update: But I bought one anyway on the opening weekend.  See below.)

There’s a psychological barrier at £300 for me.  Anything around that price doesn’t need a huge amount of thought.  If I want it, I’ll have it and not worry too much about usefulness.  Once I reach £400 I’ll start to think whether I REALLY want it - and it ceases to be a consumable (which needs little justification).

At £529 the iPad has become an asset which needs to provide a return on investment - not purely financial, but it needs to give me £X worth of value each year.  I can’t justify £529 on a device for reading books and websites.

From being uncharacteristically bullish on the iPad’s prospects in the UK, I have changed in the space of three hours to predicting very sluggish sales here.

Update: Bought an iPad - I figured that you can’t comment on something properly without owning one.  So I drove down to Edinburgh, bought one, and drove straight home.  It’s an awesome bit of kit, but it won’t replace anything I already own.  It has replaced the Blackberry for reading news/RSS feeds though.  PC World in Edinburgh sold 190 of their stock of 220 on the first day.  For travelling it is going to be brilliant.